Russian Summer Offensive Stopped. Unable To Break Through, Alter War Outcome

It's July 1st, essentially mid-summer. And the Russian summer offensive, which was an extension of its spring offensive that was an extension of its winter offensive is generally described as 'slowed,' 'stalled' or 'stopped.' 

The Sumy offensive is, well, let's talk about something else, says the Kremlin. Headlines claiming that Russia is massing 100,000 troops at Pokrovsk - which a previous Russian offensive was supposed to have taken more than a year ago - suggests the futility of the Kremlin's military endeavors, now largely being undertaken so that Donald Trump does not write Putin off as a total loser. In other words, Russia is incapable of winning this war on the battlefield. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Little has changed. The Russians are still attacking a great deal, but their advances have slowed (and in some places stopped) for now. In Sumy, the only change this week was a Ukrainian counterattack that retook a small piece of land. At Pokrovsk, if the Russians need to mass 110,000 troops to take a city they were supposed to take more than a year ago, it would represent one of the most futile military endeavors in modern history. "We do not expect the Russians to be able to make any strategic breakthroughs. The Russian summer offensive is ongoing and able to make “slight” gains in places such as Sumy and Donbas. We do not assess the Russians have the ability to substantially change the situation."

This week General Syrskyi made an interesting comment about the state of the Russian Summer Offensive—which has been going on for approximately two months now. He said that the offensive was overall “failing” and that the Ukrainians had stopped, for instance, the Russian invasion just over the border into Sumy Oblast. Indeed, he went even further there, and claimed that the Russian advances into Sumy were collapsing.

The defense of Sumy region is currently one of our key priorities. Based on May–June developments, it’s clear that this year’s wave of attempted Russian offensive actions from across the border is collapsing, just like last year’s failed assault on Kharkiv region.

That is quite a bold claim (and I am sure there are linguistic nuances in translation that are being missed). It certainly is rather early in the summer to say that the offensives have been defeated.

Its worth noting that two days later, Syrskyi also claimed that the Russians have built up a force of 110,000 soldiers around Pokrovsk—which if true would be a very sizable force indeed.

It would also represent something remarkable—as Pokrovsk was pronounced practically doomed by the analytical community almost 11 months ago. If the Russians still need to mass 110,000 troops to take a city that they were supposed to take more than a year ago, it would represent one of the most futile military endeavors in modern history.

So what seems to be happening? Well, actually little has changed. The Russians are still attacking a great deal, but their advances seem to have slowed (and in some places stopped) for now. In Sumy, for instance, the only change this week was a small Ukrainian counterattack that retook a small piece of land (the blue spot in the middle/left of the map).

Around Pokrovsk there was no change at all.

And yet I feel distinctly queasy when discussing the idea of failure with the present tempo of operations. As former Ukrainian defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk said in an interview with me this week—the Russian summer offensive is ongoing, its just difficult to see any sort of significant change.

We do not expect the Russians to be able to make any strategic breakthroughs. The Russian summer offensive is ongoing in our estimation and they are able to make “slight” gains in places such as Sumy and Donbas. However, we do not assess that the Russians have the ability to substantially change the situation.

Where the Russians have made some of their small advances, we generally believe it was down to finding a place where we did not have enough drones. As we scale up UAV production, this will hopefully happen less and less.

 

I certainly would not use the words “failure” or “culminate” in terms of the Russian offensive. It will keep going, probably for months, because of the disparate and drip-feeding way the attacks need to me to have any chance in an environment with such effective defensive firepower. In some ways, Russia has been on one continuous offensive over the last year and a half, with regular attacks that hardly stop.

It actually is not a recipe for success on the battlefield—though it is one for high losses. Its another reason the way Ukraine is now being prepared to have a horrible time in air defense is so stupid. If Ukrainian cities were better protected, it would actually free up the Ukrainians to take advantage of these losses.